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The 4% rule becomes the 3% rule (as if you needed this bad news)

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The 60/40 portfolio had an awful year in 2022, with a serious drawdown… Fall 2022 would have been a good time to enter the portfolio. Bad times don’t last forever. Note, quotes above were from March and April 2022, before the big drawdown was completed. So I suppose they are outdated.

If stocks take another haircut, and bonds also (meaning higher interest rates on the 10 year Treasury bond), then really it will be a good time to use the 60/40. But if this happens people will be too afraid of stocks and bonds, and they’ll be bidding up the price of whatever is the fashionable thing of the day…

Same as it ever was… buy high, sell low!

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